The World Is Not Fine

October 16, 2020

These unusual views shared here seem to be unfortunately ridiculous. While some apology may seem an appropriate response, in fact the importance of the warnings and advice are ever more important.

There are two stories from Thursday, yesterday, that caught my attention. The first is one of the most damaging stories I have read in a while. Before I share the details, it is important to understand that the financial world has been working for decades to improve the sharing of information. Part of that work has been to make sure that information was shared equally, made available to all participants in a timely manner and that it reflected the truth.

On Thursday it became apparent that the current US administration warned leading hedge funds about COVID-19 before the public and since then has downplayed the virus in a variety of ways.

The COVID crash of February/March was likely manufactured by those same hedge funds, enriching them and their clients at the expense of ordinary investors.

The second relates to the fall-out of COVID-19. Of course this space has been focused on the dire consequences that are (still, evermore) set to cause real financial hardship for an ever larger group of people in the world. Despite the fact that much of that hasn’t happened yet, and I appear to be somewhat out of the loop on what’s going on, someone agrees with me.

That is to say, someone who is far more important than me, agrees with me. Perhaps I am not crazy. Carmen Reinhart, the chief economist for the World Bank said the current crisis is “morphing into a major economic crisis, with very serious financial consequences”.

Between the chief economist for the World Bank, Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve and the Head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva all saying that more needs to be done, it would be wrong to change the suggestions made so far. Take money off of the table if you are over invested. The next few years are likely to be very difficult.

Employment numbers came in today as well, they were worse than expected. It looks like that second wave of layoffs is coming, along with the second wave of COVID. This was just before a new report suggesting that Remdesivir doesn’t do much to help COVID-19 patients.

Stay safe! Stay home if you can.

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