September 22, 2020 This year has been crazy on many levels, and outside of the massive and somewhat inexplicable gyrations in the stock market, there is another market that is acting truly strange. The real estate market. Marketwatch, a financial website, posted an opinion piece about the US real estate market, and it is a… Continue reading The US Real Estate Bubble
Author: The Pessimist
Just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean they aren't after me.
In an increasingly complex world, the end of solidarity means a whole lot of uncertainty and thinking outside the box may make your world much more manageable.
A Quick Look At Wealth . . .
This post really isn't complete, but it continues on a theme that I have been working on for some time. The thesis is that deficit spending is no longer providing a meaningful boost to the economy. Some potential reasons for this include an over supply of goods (how many cars do we need, how many… Continue reading A Quick Look At Wealth . . .
What’s New
September 15, 2020 While this blog has been quiet for a while, it isn't because there is no news. This is just a short note to highlight a few updates. First, there is no new stimulus for the US, at least not anything significant. The president has offered some modest benefit for unemployed people, and… Continue reading What’s New
Slow Burn
August 22, 2020 Bankruptcy during the pandemic seems to be rather modest to date. I have been watching and posting about some of the larger bankruptcies to highlight the stress in the marketplace. Professionals are suggesting things could be about to get a lot worse and this makes sense because the government support for individuals… Continue reading Slow Burn
A Little Early to Worry
August 19, 2020 Watching the many little things that go on in the markets is time consuming but every so often a little nugget comes along that shines a light on potential problems. The macro problems with the economy have been well trod here, but the market has bounded higher, without a care for those… Continue reading A Little Early to Worry
Gedankenerfahrung
August 18, 2020 Like many children, I grew up idolizing many people who were proposed as exceptional, one of those was Albert Einstein. While many recognize his theory of relativity and the famous equation E=mc2 it may not be clear that his methodology was just as critical. Gedankenerfahrung is the German for 'thought experiment'. Alongside… Continue reading Gedankenerfahrung
Bounding To The Top
August 12, 2020 The US markets are back to their all time highs! Great news if you own a lot of equities. It is the fastest drop and climb ever, in the history of markets and it is truly awe inspiring. Unfortunately, the economy is terrible and liquidity is driving investors into a market that… Continue reading Bounding To The Top
MY GOVERNMENT DID THIS
August 11, 2020 Reuters published an article about the blast in Lebanon this morning, with a photo of graffiti . . . this was the message of the graffiti, "MY GOVERNMENT DID THIS". The government stepped down yesterday amid the corruption. Many highlight the corruption in Lebanon, but it is worth comparing the devastation in… Continue reading MY GOVERNMENT DID THIS
That GDP Thing
July 30, 2020 Having spent many weeks looking for data, contemplating and warning about the effects of COVID-19 on GDP, the day has arrived. The number itself is not really all that important, it is bad. (GDP declined by 32.9% in the second quarter on a year over year basis). The economy remains in very… Continue reading That GDP Thing
Tesla’s Profits Are Not What They Seem
July 23, 2020 Tesla reported their Q2 results last night and the market is sounding impressed. Marketwatch has this headline: "Tesla's blowout earnings prompt bulls and bears to boost price targets". The Tesla story has been a long road full of unusual action in markets and the current quarter is no different. The company is… Continue reading Tesla’s Profits Are Not What They Seem
