Author: The Pessimist

January 9, 2022 The last time this blog highlighted the yield curve, the 10 year treasury was at 11.55%. Today it stands at about 1.77%. This doesn't seem that much higher of course, but on a percentage basis it is. It's higher by 15% and that can have a significant impact on cash flow. For… Continue reading The Yield Curve

January 7, 2022 A belated happy New Year to those who peruse this page. This space has been negative on markets for so long, it can now be measured in years rather than months, and that has enough similarities to the classic story 'The boy who cried wolf', that the best solution was to stop… Continue reading Turn Off The Taps

July 9, 2021 There has been nothing written here for some time. During that time there has been a lot of action in markets, but not much is new. The world is still not making much sense from a fundamental perspective but that will go largely unnoticed by most readers. Economists however are taking note.… Continue reading Nothing New Under the Sun

February 26, 2021 It was way back in October that this blog highlighted that it was A Little Early to Worry about rising interest rates, but here we are, almost exactly six months later and it is no longer too early to worry. Over the past two weeks, the market has gone through unsettled and… Continue reading TINA is Leaving

February 15, 2021 With a rational government in place, moving policy forward, the world can turn to real issues that don't involve babysitting world leaders. Or so it would seem. Here is a brief review of some of the interesting things going on in the world, that some may have missed because there is a… Continue reading China’s Greatest Export

February 1, 2021 The last post (Roving Bands of Pretend Capitalists), took a somewhat curt look at a couple of the issues surround the GameStop short squeeze and highlighted a couple of errors in regulations. The next step is to draw a picture of liquidity and what happens when it goes away . . .… Continue reading The Effect of Liquidity

January 29, 2021 If anyone is following the news, you may be very aware of one of the most interesting phenomena in investing in a long, long time. The GameStop short squeeze. This is really big news for a lot of reasons but for many it is a completely foreign event, like the discovery of… Continue reading Roving Bands of Pretend Capitalists

January 25, 2021 Thank you for voting in a president. While it may be difficult to agree with some of the things on the Democratic agenda, it is far more difficult to find room for a tyrannical, self-centred and dangerous president like Donald Trump. Thank you, from the rest of the civilized and democratic world.… Continue reading Thank You America

November 28, 2020 There has been no update here for over a month, and the world of finance seems to have smoothed out. The world has exhaled, in what seems to be a sigh of relief after the US election and the markets are presenting us with a 'risk on' scenario. At the risk of… Continue reading A Shiny New Beginning