October 16, 2020 These unusual views shared here seem to be unfortunately ridiculous. While some apology may seem an appropriate response, in fact the importance of the warnings and advice are ever more important. There are two stories from Thursday, yesterday, that caught my attention. The first is one of the most damaging stories I… Continue reading The World Is Not Fine
Author: The Pessimist
Just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean they aren't after me.
In an increasingly complex world, the end of solidarity means a whole lot of uncertainty and thinking outside the box may make your world much more manageable.
The Resiliency of Markets
October 10, 2020 Markets around the world continue to show amazing resiliency. There are stock markets, bond markets, fish markets, labor markets, collectible card markets, real estate markets . . . they are all pretty resilient. In such a scary time, celebration could be in order, but a bit of skepticism wouldn't be a bad… Continue reading The Resiliency of Markets
So Much . . .
October 2, 2020 One of the characteristics of an abrupt change is usually volatility. That truism shouldn't be any more evident than it is right now. The world is experiencing massive volatility in politics, in business and in the social frameworks that hold society together, and the underlying causes of that volatility should be expected… Continue reading So Much . . .
Troubled Assets
September 28, 2020 The warnings are coming fast and furious in the markets these days. Over the weekend two very disparate, but somewhat related stories were printed, again showing the difficulties in the economy. The first is that commercial real estate in the US is probably worth 27% less than it was before the pandemic.… Continue reading Troubled Assets
The US Real Estate Bubble
September 22, 2020 This year has been crazy on many levels, and outside of the massive and somewhat inexplicable gyrations in the stock market, there is another market that is acting truly strange. The real estate market. Marketwatch, a financial website, posted an opinion piece about the US real estate market, and it is a… Continue reading The US Real Estate Bubble
A Quick Look At Wealth . . .
This post really isn't complete, but it continues on a theme that I have been working on for some time. The thesis is that deficit spending is no longer providing a meaningful boost to the economy. Some potential reasons for this include an over supply of goods (how many cars do we need, how many… Continue reading A Quick Look At Wealth . . .
What’s New
September 15, 2020 While this blog has been quiet for a while, it isn't because there is no news. This is just a short note to highlight a few updates. First, there is no new stimulus for the US, at least not anything significant. The president has offered some modest benefit for unemployed people, and… Continue reading What’s New
Slow Burn
August 22, 2020 Bankruptcy during the pandemic seems to be rather modest to date. I have been watching and posting about some of the larger bankruptcies to highlight the stress in the marketplace. Professionals are suggesting things could be about to get a lot worse and this makes sense because the government support for individuals… Continue reading Slow Burn
A Little Early to Worry
August 19, 2020 Watching the many little things that go on in the markets is time consuming but every so often a little nugget comes along that shines a light on potential problems. The macro problems with the economy have been well trod here, but the market has bounded higher, without a care for those… Continue reading A Little Early to Worry
Gedankenerfahrung
August 18, 2020 Like many children, I grew up idolizing many people who were proposed as exceptional, one of those was Albert Einstein. While many recognize his theory of relativity and the famous equation E=mc2 it may not be clear that his methodology was just as critical. Gedankenerfahrung is the German for 'thought experiment'. Alongside… Continue reading Gedankenerfahrung
