June 1, 2020 The warnings about the impending economic damage have been coming fast and furious from this blog for over three months now. Equity prices might suggest that these warnings are silly, but it would be wise to at least consider their merit. The lasting economic decline appears to be starting. From the perspective… Continue reading The Decline Begins
May 28, 2020 This is another very short note, but it is bizarre that markets continue their ascent with the dire news that is hitting the wires. Continuing claims for unemployment were released today, and the news is improving; there were 4.1 million fewer people unemployed (14.5% unemployment, slightly better than the last reading of… Continue reading All Better Now!
May 27, 2020 Around the world, strategists, economists, business owners and almost everyone else are wondering what demand might look like. Travel demand is one of the hardest hit areas, but this morning a comment by the CEO of RyanAir caught my attention. With equity prices just 8-10% from their all time highs set in… Continue reading Short Note on Demand
May 26, 2020 In the world of investing it is important to prepare for being wrong. On April 23rd, a chart of the market was posted that suggested a local top. From a rational, economic perspective it seemed that markets would take a breather from their 'V' shaped recovery and recognize the faults with the… Continue reading On Being Wrong
May 25, 2020 The world experiences a multitude of bad things all of the time. Many of us in the first world don't notice. The COVID crash has altered this and turned first world countries upside down. There is a great list of epidemics on Wikipedia, showing some of the bad things that happen around… Continue reading It’s All Good
May 22, 2020 A recent post took a brief look at the impact of the shut down on Canadian restaurant operator Cara Foods, but understanding the impact will be guess work for a while. This morning however a well known retailer, Footlocker, released their financial results and it may prove helpful to see what the… Continue reading Shutdown Implications – Retail
May 22, 2020 On March 20th, a colleague asked asked how long I thought this would last and I said that the virus will last a long time, but the lock down won't last for more than eight weeks in a free country. We are now nine weeks in and things are remarkably busy. While… Continue reading This is Going to Hurt
May 15, 2020 Modern society has suffered major upheaval during the last five decades. While the transition has been slow and methodical, it has upset the balance of society in a major way. With the COVID Crash that is now uncovering the errors in policy, it might be appropriate to ask 'what is the price… Continue reading The Price of Policy
May 12, 2020 With the passing of Kenney Rogers it is wise to remember the chorus from his best known song, the Gambler. You got to know when to hold 'em, Know when to fold 'em, Know when to walk away, And know when to run. You never count your money When you're sittin' at… Continue reading The Gambler – Inflation or Deflation?
May 10, 2020 The common theme of posts for the past two months is that things are not going back to normal anytime soon. Of course the markets are telling a different story, up about 30% off the bottom set on March 23rd, but that is probably a 'bounce' provided by government intervention. It is… Continue reading Financial Implications of a Shutdown – An Example