Strategy, Leadership and Investment
August 19, 2020 Watching the many little things that go on in the markets is time consuming but every so often a little nugget comes along that shines a light on potential problems. The macro problems with the economy have been well trod here, but the market has bounded higher, without a care for those… Continue reading A Little Early to Worry
August 18, 2020 Like many children, I grew up idolizing many people who were proposed as exceptional, one of those was Albert Einstein. While many recognize his theory of relativity and the famous equation E=mc2 it may not be clear that his methodology was just as critical. Gedankenerfahrung is the German for 'thought experiment'. Alongside… Continue reading Gedankenerfahrung
August 12, 2020 The US markets are back to their all time highs! Great news if you own a lot of equities. It is the fastest drop and climb ever, in the history of markets and it is truly awe inspiring. Unfortunately, the economy is terrible and liquidity is driving investors into a market that… Continue reading Bounding To The Top
August 11, 2020 Reuters published an article about the blast in Lebanon this morning, with a photo of graffiti . . . this was the message of the graffiti, "MY GOVERNMENT DID THIS". The government stepped down yesterday amid the corruption. Many highlight the corruption in Lebanon, but it is worth comparing the devastation in… Continue reading MY GOVERNMENT DID THIS
July 30, 2020 Having spent many weeks looking for data, contemplating and warning about the effects of COVID-19 on GDP, the day has arrived. The number itself is not really all that important, it is bad. (GDP declined by 32.9% in the second quarter on a year over year basis). The economy remains in very… Continue reading That GDP Thing
July 23, 2020 Tesla reported their Q2 results last night and the market is sounding impressed. Marketwatch has this headline: "Tesla's blowout earnings prompt bulls and bears to boost price targets". The Tesla story has been a long road full of unusual action in markets and the current quarter is no different. The company is… Continue reading Tesla’s Profits Are Not What They Seem
July 23, 2020 This blog has run through a number of prior situations where the money runs out and asset prices take a hit. This morning another small example of the downside risks of staying invested just a little too long came to the fore. This morning a fund manager based out of South Africa… Continue reading When The Money Runs Out
July 23, 2020 There are so many things to write about and nothing good to say, but the facts are the facts and the implications may well prove to be difficult. For those that pull in their horns, there is a good chance that the repercussions of the current crisis may not be too uncomfortable.… Continue reading Jumbo Problems
July 22, 2020 It is with great regret that I wish to inform you that the 'V' shaped recovery many have been hoping for is not happening. Of course this isn't obvious to those who use the stock markets as a barometer of such things, but for economists, governments and central banks the answer is… Continue reading So Much For That ‘V’
July 21, 2020 As always, there is more good news today. Of course the EU agreed to their nearly two trillion euro recovery fund, so the demise of European society has been put off until the next crisis. In other good news, manufacturing in the US should get a boost as China and the US… Continue reading COVID-19 On the Decline
