July 18, 2020 Earnings are starting to roll in pretty quickly for the second quarter, and a quick review should highlight some of the damage being done by the COVID crisis. When you bring up headlines, however, things look pretty good. A more nuanced analytical review highlights a few issues which investors should be aware… Continue reading An Early Look At Earnings
July 18, 2020 [Updated from time to time - Last update July 18, 2020]. July 20 Update The hits keep coming. BJ Services (a fracking company) filed for Chapter 11 BBS - A German wheel manufacturer. Apparently the third time it has declared bankruptcy (reassuring for those who think Bankruptcy is always fatal!) July 18… Continue reading Bankruptcy Watch II
July 16, 2020 The earnings rush is upon the markets and markets are taking all of the results in stride. In fact, it looks like the world is running normally. Equity prices, which generally assume increasing revenue and increasing profitability, continue to inch higher. The S&P 500 is just 15 points below where it started… Continue reading Can You Repeat That?
July 12, 2020 With many distractions recently, the markets have been free to float around while associated commentary has been trapped and festering away from this blog space. But let's look around and see what's new. The Virus COVID-19 is coming under control in Europe, Canada and some other 'first world' societies, however the US… Continue reading Keeping Up
June 30, 2020 One of the most important qualities to good analysis is the ability to discern the parts of the analysis that are correct and the parts that are not. Or perhaps the whole thing is rubbish, or you get it all right and are a total genius. This blog has been focused… Continue reading Still Wrong . . .
June 23, 2020 In a normal year, summer would be underway right about now. Kids would be finishing up that last week of the year, parents would be preparing the camp kit or the cottage stockpiles and the market would cool off. This year has been anything but normal and it doesn’t look to be… Continue reading Nonsense
June 16, 2020 If this post comes off a little short on detail, that's because it only highlights an idea, it doesn't come close to doing justice to the topic. The issue at hand is that cash flow matters, to individuals, to companies, to governments . . . and there isn't enough of it. The… Continue reading That Cash Flow Thing
June 15, 2020 The run-up in markets has been astounding, humbling in fact for many people who use things like economics, history or reason to evaluate markets. The call made here to not buy yet seems like it was misplaced. Well kids, recess is over, time to get back to classes. CNBC and other… Continue reading Recess is Over
June 3, 2020 A 'going concern' note is given to companies that don't have the financial resources to make it through the coming twelve months of operation. This morning AMC Theatres announced that there is substantial doubt that it can remain in business by issuing a going concern notice. Their stock is up 6%… Continue reading Another Going Concern
June 2, 2020 The relentless (truly unbelievable) rise in markets is baffling in many ways. There are many different metrics, predictors of economic activity that have proven to be historically meaningful. The Dow Transports tell a story of shipping as does the Baltic Dry Index which is a measure of the price to ship goods. … Continue reading Some Arcane Guideposts